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Gold has lost some of its mojo

The Echelon Insights Team • Jul 26, 2021

There is a large cohort of investors that loves gold, and a large cohort that dislikes gold; we are neither. Our opinion on the yellow metal and gold mining companies changes over time. This is evident in gold allocation in our fundamentally driven North American dividend-focused portfolio over the past five years, from less than 3% to over 9% and currently sitting at 7%. The gold weighting in the TSX also has seen some pretty big swings, ranging from less than 3% to over 16% over the past 15 years (Chart 1). That is a pretty big swing for one of the larger components of the index. 

The reason we decided to discuss gold in this week’s edition is that we are seeing some odd pricing behaviour in the yellow metal of late. The price of gold is often heavily influenced by a number of factors, including: 


  1. Inflation – since gold is a real asset, it is often viewed as a hedge against inflation. Higher inflation, higher gold. 
  2. Nominal yields – given gold has no distribution, higher nominal yields on government bonds makes that competing defensive asset class relatively more attractive. High yields, lower gold.
  3. U.S. dollar hedge – Gold is quoted in USD, so a falling USD is typically positive for gold prices. Lower USD, higher gold. 
  4. Trust – gold often does well as a hedge against uncertainty, including trust in the financial system. Lower trust, higher gold. 


There are other factors as well. Bitcoin has become a competing asset class to some degree for those desiring a non-fiat currency alternative. Central bank buying or selling gold, flows into gold ETFs, consumer demand especially from developing economies … the list goes on. But the four we listed are usually big and more consistent factors. 


To make matters a bit more complex, the influence of these factors changes over time. For instance, sometimes gold reacts to inflation but ignores currency or nominal yield moves. Sometimes currency moves matter the most for gold, and other factors don’t matter. Nobody ever said investing would be easy. 


Gold misbehaving 

Real yields, which is the nominal 10-year U.S. Treasury yield less inflation, captures both nominal yields and inflation factors listed above. There has been a very strong connection between gold bullion prices and real yields for the past decade. In addition, peaks and troughs in real yields have often coincided with troughs and peaks in gold prices going back to the 1970s (Chart 2). Turning points in the direction of real yields has marked turning points in gold. Plus, when real yields are trending in one direction, gold is often trending in the opposite [note: real yields are inverted in the charts]. 

This relationship has been very strong in the past few years (Chart 3). However, the recent drop in real yields (see rise in the purple line) due to rising inflation and falling nominal yields has not been reciprocated by a rise in gold. Ok, perhaps the gold market also buys into the view that this inflation impulse we are experiencing is 100% transitory. However, gold should have also risen as 10-year nominal yields fell from 1.7% to 1.3%. But it didn’t. That has us worried that the path of least resistance for gold may be lower from here out. 

For the other factors we are not sure how to measure ‘trust’ in the system, but we will point out that currency appears to be having a stronger influence on gold in the past few months. Normally, when the U.S. dollar declines, gold rises and vice versa. This relationship has been very soft or even moving against the norm since 2019 and into early 2021, for the most part. Gold started rising in 2019 despite a rising USD. In late 2020, gold continued to rise as the USD started to weaken (normal), but the USD continued to weaken and gold reversed course. The past few months though, we have seen them moving in opposite directions again (Chart 4). 

Investment Implications 

If you believe this bout of inflation is temporary and/or bond yields are set to rise, gold will likely suffer from headwinds for a while. We believe this situation may persist in the near term. Afterwards, our expectations are for inflation to settle at a higher level than the market is expecting, which should be positive for gold. From a currency protection perspective, we welcome the return of a strong negative correlation between gold and the USD. Overall, we are still constructive on gold for a portfolio diversifier but with a more sombre view in the coming months.

Charts are sourced to Bloomberg L.P. unless otherwise noted.


The contents of this publication were researched, written and produced by Richardson Wealth Limited and are used herein under a non-exclusive license by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. (“Echelon”) for information purposes only. The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable but there is no guarantee they are accurate or complete. Particular investments or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual's objectives in consultation with their Echelon representative. 


Forward Looking Statements


Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections based on beliefs and assumptions made by author. These statements involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements.


The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These estimates and expectations involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements.


The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe are reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The information contained has not been approved by and are not those of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. (“Echelon”), its subsidiaries, affiliates, or divisions including but not limited to Chevron Wealth Preservation Inc. This is not an official publication or research report of Echelon, the author is not an Echelon research analyst and this is not to be used as a solicitation in a jurisdiction where this Echelon representative is not registered.


The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of its author, Richardson Wealth Limited (“Richardson”), used under a non-exclusive license and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. (“Echelon”) or its affiliates.


This is not an official publication or research report of Echelon, the author is not an Echelon research analyst and this is not to be used as a solicitation in a jurisdiction where this Echelon representative is not registered. The information contained has not been approved by and are not those of Echelon, its subsidiaries, affiliates, or divisions including but not limited to Chevron Wealth Preservation Inc. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe are reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete.


Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Echelon and Richardson do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These estimates and expectations involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements.


Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections based on beliefs and assumptions made by author. These statements involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements. 

Echelon’s Insight Team


Echelon’s Insight Team includes members in various departments such as Wealth Management, Capital Markets, Marketing, Talent, and Compliance who have subject matter expertise and collaborate together to build quality content to help our clients. This team approach helps us ensure content is produced that is meaningful, accurate and timely.

Labour Intensity, Wage Pressure, and Why People Are Quitting Their Jobs

By The Echelon Insights Team • 18 Oct, 2021
Inflation sucks. It is essentially a tax on those consuming goods or services, as things simply cost more. Even worse, it is a regressive tax given lower income/wealth consumers tend to spend a higher portion of their income. Now, if you are sitting comfortably on your nest egg and not spending too much, should inflation worry you? That depends on this raging debate as to whether the current spike in inflation is a blip caused by temporary demand and supply imbalances…or the start of something longer term. If inflation runs hotter for longer, the value of that nest egg erodes in real terms—clearly a risk to any long-term financial plan. Currently the good news is higher prices have been predominantly found in what the Atlanta Fed calls ‘flexible priced categories.’ Breaking down the categories in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) into those that are flexible and those that are sticky clearly demonstrates that the headline number is being almost completely pushed higher by the flexible categories. The good news is the prices in these categories can come back down just as fast, supporting the “inflation is transitory” argument. In fact, many have started this descent.  A confluence of factors caused the CPI spike. The pandemic disrupted logistic supply chains that have been increasingly run tighter over the years to reduce costs. Demand came back faster than expected and focused more on durable goods. Global spending behaviours changed quickly. Meanwhile supply adjustments are not as quick. Based on manufacturing survey data, it appears that the worse may be behind us. Readings are still high in many PMI survey questions, including slower delivery times, customer inventories too low, and backlogs rising, but they appear to have peaked a few months ago and are moving in the right direction.

Rarefied Air

By The Echelon Insights Team • 12 Oct, 2021
The market advance over the past year has truly turned a lot of heads, in a good way. After the initial bear and bounce triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, markets went on a phenomenal run. The rollout of vaccines driving the re-opening trend in the economy helped, as did the continued emergency monetary and fiscal support policies. And what a run. During this advance, consumer spending pivoted much more to durables such as vehicles, homes, and technology. While nominal GDP doesn’t care as much where an individual decides to spend their money, the equity markets much prefer you buy some durables instead of services (like a dinner). 

Why we’re preparing for a turbulent year end

By The Echelon Insights Team • 04 Oct, 2021
Challenges ahead — Greg Taylor September has once again lived up to its reputation for volatility. In many ways this had to be expected as equity markets have experienced one of the longest runs of stable returns and minimal drawdowns in history. However, the timing of this recent volatility should not surprise many, as most of the positive tailwinds that have carried the market to these levels are starting to fade away, setting up what could be a difficult period for capital markets. Global central banks are the biggest and most important factor that have helped elevate recent returns. To their credit, they learned from the mistakes of the global financial crisis where indecision and delay exacerbated things—this time, right from the beginning, the banks did everything they could to help the markets and the economy. But all good things must come to an end, and 18 months after the start of the pandemic, it is time for central banks to begin to remove some emergency measures. This isn’t a bad thing at all. Central banks need to begin to normalize policy to prepare for the next crisis. But it is a change from the recent normal and means that central banks may be less accommodating for the next while. This action resulted in bond yields moving higher across the curve and has led to a change in sector leadership. The growth/value trade has been a subject of much debate over the last few years. As growth has dominated in a period of ever lower bond yields, with the threat of inflation, has this turned? Will the rally in energy be the trigger to get this going once again? The energy sector was a victim of the climate movement, but the resulting cuts to production may be setting us up for a bull market in the commodities as we are already seeing shortages in both natural gas and heating oil. The resulting price increases is also adding further ammunition to the inflation argument as higher costs will undoubtably flow through to the price of goods. What no one really expected in the month was the China risk. Consistently over the last year, China has been working to extend their influence over the capital markets, which has caused many to question if China is at all investible? Their constant clamp down on social media and other growth sectors became a secondary concern as their largest construction company ran into liquidity issues. Evergrande was never going to be a Lehman moment, but it had the potential to leave some scars. For the moment, this risk has faded to the background, but it can’t be ignored and has the potential to flare up once again. What could prove to be the biggest risk to the markets in the near term is earnings season. With the advent of quant funds gaining a greater market share, we have seen companies that beat earning expectations gain versus those that don’t. But as easy comparable estimates fade, huge beats will be harder to achieve. We have already seen some notable companies miss these expectations and the risk is that the next month will be filled with negative earnings revisions. One of the biggest reasons for earning misses has been from broken supply chains. Covid lockdowns and pulled-forward demand for goods did immeasurable damage to the concept of ‘just-in-time’ inventory models. Companies continue to scramble for components, such as semiconductors, in order to product goods. As indicated by the surge in used car prices, the automotive sector has been one of the hardest hit. Until this is fixed, we must expect inflated prices of goods and services and squeezing margins. Whether this is temporary or permanent is still up for debate, but its another headwind to markets.
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